Publications

Exploiting admission thresholds for participating in Erasmus, the most popular higher education study abroad programme in Europe, we implement a regression discontinuity design and show that student mobility does not delay graduation and, in addition, has a positive and significant impact on the final graduation marks of undergraduate students. We find that Erasmus mobility improves graduation results for undergraduate students enrolled in scientific and technical fields and for those who apply in the first year of their studies, especially when enrolled in more demanding degree courses. Investigating plausible mechanisms, we find that the positive impact on performance at graduation is stronger for students who visit foreign universities of relatively lower quality compared to their home university. Finally, we do not find statistically significant effects of Erasmus mobility on postgraduate educational choices and labour market outcomes one year after graduation.

We reconstruct the genealogical tree of all individuals ever appearing in Dutch municipalities records starting in 1995. Combining microdata from tax authorities with education records we compute a measure of permanent income as well as education. We estimate the degree of intergenerational persistence in education and income in the population and across time, showing that it is higher than what previous estimates would suggest, albeit it appears to be decreasing. Finally, exploiting information on the education of grandparents, we estimate a model of intergenerational mobility in which endowments are transmitted through a latent factor. Estimates suggest an even higher persistence.

This article analyses the impact of non-informative communication on Europeans’ perceptions of European Union (EU) action on the issue of migration. We exploit the fact that Pope Francis’s visit to Lesbos Island in 16 April 2016, overlaps with the days of the interviews for a Special Eurobarometer survey, such that some respondents were unintentionally exposed to the Pope’s speech while others were not. Comparing Catholics and non-Catholics before and after the Pope’s visit in a difference-indifferences setting, we show that the papal message persuaded exposed Catholic individuals that EU action on the issue of migration is insufficient. The effect is temporary and varies according to the demographic characteristics of the respondents and by the country’s share of asylum applicants in 2015. Moreover, media exposure of the Pope’s visit, measured by the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone, was greater in Catholic countries, and this might explain the effect found.

In March 2021, Italian health authorities suspended the Vaxzevria vaccine (VA) for 4 days over reports of very rare blood disorders among recipients. We exploit the quasi-experimental setting arising from this break to study the drivers of vaccine hesitancy. Before the suspension, the VA vaccination trend followed the same pattern as Pfizer-Biontech (PB). After the suspension, VA and PB injections started to diverge, with VA daily decreasing by almost 60 doses per 100,000 inhabitants for the following 3 weeks. The resulting vaccination rate was 60 percent lower than the value that would have stemmed from the VA pre-suspension pattern. We show that the slowdown was weaker and less persistent in regions with higher COVID penetration and steadier and more pronounced in regions displaying greater attention to vaccine side effects as detected through Google searches. The public’s interest in vaccine adverse events negatively correlates with COVID cases and deaths across regions.

We show that compensation measures aimed at improving the fairness of a crisis policy response can unintendedly nudge compliance with emergency rules. We combine information on the distribution of relief funds across Italian municipalities during the novel coronavirus pandemic with data tracking citizens’ movements through mobile devices and navigation systems. To assess the impact of transfers on compliance, we exploit a sharp kink schedule in the allocation of funds. The empirical analysis provides evidence that compliance increased with transfers, suggesting that the observance of emergency rules also depends on the fairness of the pandemic policy response.

While many studies have investigated the determinants of household formation and fertility in young adults, only a few have focused on the impact of employment protection legislation (EPL) on these outcomes. Moreover, to the best of our knowledge, no one has investigated how changes in EPL may alter the intentions of young individuals even before their realization. In this paper, we study the differential impact of the reduction in EPL associated with Italy’s 2015 Jobs Act on the household formation and fertility intentions of young Italians in various districts. We use data from a survey conducted on a sample of young people between the ages of 18-34 for the years 2012, 2015, 2016, and 2017. The identification strategy exploits local variation in the level of efficiency of the courts, measured in terms of the average duration of proceedings, to assess the existence of within-country and across-district heterogeneity in the reform’s impact. Indeed, firing costs used to be relatively greater in districts characterized by a longer duration of labor trials. The Jobs Act, by reducing firing costs and modifying the autonomy of judges, should have had a larger impact in districts with less efficient courts. According to our results, the reform seems to have indirectly leveled out the fertility and household formation intentions of young Italians living in districts with more and less efficient courts. Heterogeneities indicate that the results are mainly driven by older individuals and graduates who live in less disadvantaged areas. JEL classification C31 • M51 • J2 • J12 • J13 • J41

Researchers are increasingly exploiting web-searches to study phenomena for which timely and high-frequency data are not readily available. We propose a data-driven procedure which, exploiting machine learning techniques, solves the issue of identifying the list of queries linked to the phenomenon of interest, even in a cross-country setting. Queries are then aggregated in an indicator which can be used for causal inference. We apply this procedure to construct a search-based unemployment index and study the effect of lock-downs during the first wave of the covid-19 pandemic. In a Difference-in-Differences analysis, we show that the indicator rose significantly and persistently in the aftermath of lock-downs. This is not the case when using unprocessed (raw) web search data, which might return a partial figure of the labour market dynamics following lock-downs.

A number of studies examine the effect of the presence of migrants or refugees on voting behaviour in the same location, overlooking potential interactions between geographical areas. Exploiting unique data on refugee reception centre locations, we provide novel empirical evidence on the geographical spillover effect of refugee premises on voting outcomes in neighbouring municipalities. Our analysis of the 2016 referendum and the 2013 and 2018 general elections demonstrates that proximity to refugee reception centres increases voter turnout and the share of votes for populist parties in Italy, while reducing support for the centre-left. Importantly, the effect varies by municipality population size, per capita taxable income level, former political orientation, and access to broadband internet. Consistent with the hypothesis that opposition parties might have exploited anti-immigration sentiments to influence both referendum and general election ballots, we find that geographical proximity to refugee centres partly contributes to the recent success of populist parties in Italy.

By increasing the residual working horizon of employed individuals, pension reforms that rise minimum retirement age can affect individual investment in health-promoting behaviors before retirement. Using the expected increase in minimum retirement age induced by a 2004 Italian pension reform and a difference-in-differences research design, we show that middle-aged Italian males affected by the reform reacted to the longer working horizon by increasing regular exercise, with positive consequences for obesity and self-reported satisfaction with health.